There’s no one way to play at a sportsbook, and there’s absolutely no way to guarantee a win. In fact, some professional sports bettors navigate the odds purely on instinct rather than looking at the data and hard facts. But there are some proven strategies to help bettors keep more of their own money – and maybe even win more than they lose.
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1. Bankroll Management Strategy
The simplest way to protect your bankroll is by only wagering a small percentage of your total funds on each bet. By “total funds,” I mean the amount of money you’ve set aside for gambling, or the amount you’re okay with losing if luck isn’t on your side.
The most common rule is to wager no more than 1% to 5% of your bankroll on any given bet. This minimizes risk and helps you weather losses over time.
For example, if you have $1,000 in total funds, consider betting $10 on longshot bets and $50 on bets you’re most confident about.
2. Flat Betting Strategy
With the flat betting strategy, you bet the same amount on every game regardless of the odds or perceived value. With this approach, you’re aiming for consistency over time. The idea is that the key to long-term success is discipline and avoiding emotional betting.
For example, you might decide to bet $20 on every bet you place, ensuring you’re sticking to a fixed amount.
3. Value Betting Strategy
A value bet is when you believe a sportsbook’s odds underestimate the probability of a particular outcome. Value bettors will only bet on these value bets and no others, believing that it gives them the best value for their bets, regardless of if they win or lose.
To value bet, you would look at an upcoming game and make your own assessment. Then you check the sportsbook. If the odds are higher than they should be based on that assessment, you’d place the bet.
For example, if you think a team has a 60% chance of winning, but the odds imply a 40% chance (i.e., you’re getting better odds than the true probability suggests), this would be a value bet.
4. Contrarian Betting (Fading the Public)
Odds swing based on how many bets are placed, which means the public (everyone else) heavily betting on one side can lead to distorted odds that create value for contrarian bettors. When you bet against the majority of the public who may overvalue certain teams or outcomes based on hype, you can end up winning big if you’re right.
For example, if a highly popular team is favored and there’s a public betting frenzy, betting on the underdog might be a smart play.
5. The Over/Under (Totals) Betting Strategy
The over/under betting strategy involves understanding the playing styles of teams (e.g., one might be a high-scoring team, another defensively strong) and using statistical models to predict total points. This can be easier to predict than the outright winner of a game. And, excitingly, it can pay out before the game ends (if you bet the over), which is always a good feeling.
For example, you may bet on an NBA game’s total score to be over if both teams are high-scoring and have weak defenses.
6. Line Shopping
Line shopping is one of the simplest sports betting strategies. This is where you join multiple sportsbooks, compare the odds of the same bet, and choose the one with the biggest payout.
For example, if one sportsbook offers -110 odds on a team while another offers -120 for the same outcome, betting at -110 provides better value.
Sportsbooks often have differing odds, making this pretty much a no-brainer regardless of your sports betting strategy. The only real downside is that you have to keep track of where all your different bets are.
7. Against the Spread (ATS) Betting
Against the spread (ATS) betting is where you bet on a team to cover the spread, which is a set point margin decided by the sportsbook. This strategy focuses on betting on the point spread rather than the straight moneyline. Understanding team strength and weaknesses against the spread can help you find profitable opportunities.
For example, if the New England Patriots are favored by -6.5 against the Miami Dolphins, a bet on the Patriots -6.5 would mean they need to win by 7 or more points for you to win your bet.
8. In-Play Betting (Live Betting)
In-play betting is when you place bets on a game as it’s unfolding in real time. This gives you the opportunity to assess the game as it goes, placing bets more strategically. However, it also means quick thinking and on-the-spot analyses that can change as the games change.
For example, if a football team is trailing but has started to gain momentum after halftime, you might bet on them to cover the spread or win outright.
9. Betting on Small-Market Sports
Some bettors find an edge by becoming an expert on small-market, less popular sports. These sports might not get as much expert insight or attention at sportsbooks. If you’re research-savvy, you can find mispriced events and bet accordingly.
This is in contrast to major league sports, college basketball, and college football, which get the full strength of the sportsbook’s expert analyses.
For example, it was well known that US-based sportsbooks were undervaluing UFC odds. While they’ve since tightened up somewhat, it’s a good example of the possibility of gaining an edge.
Other small-market sports include tennis, darts, and volleyball.
10. The “Follow the Sharp Money” Strategy
Following the sharp money, or gambling behind professional gamblers (AKA “sharps”), means placing the bets that the pros are placing. However, this can often require an investment of paying for the pro’s subscription fee to gain the picks, which is an additional wager. If it didn’t pan out, you invested in the subscription on top of your losses.
That being said, sharps tend to bet with solid data, insights, and strategy, and the best ones strong track records that they can point to. By monitoring where sharp money is going, you can follow their lead and increase your chances of making a profitable bet.
11. Momentum Betting
Momentum betting is when you bet on teams or players who are on a hot streak, as momentum can carry over to future performances. This strategy involves spotting teams that are outperforming or underperforming compared to their usual form. Often, momentum can skew the odds in your favor.
For example, a basketball team that has won five consecutive games and has good player health could be a good bet to continue their streak.
12. Statistical and Analytical Betting
One of the more advanced methods of sports betting is statistical and analytical betting. By relying on advanced statistics and data models, bettors can make more informed betting decisions. Analytical bettors look at everything, from player statistics to team performance metrics and historical data.
Keep in mind that no betting strategy can predict the future. But with this method, you can at least ay that you’ve checked every box before making your final decision.
An example of statistical and analytical betting might be using expected goals (xG) in soccer or advanced player efficiency ratings (PER) in basketball to identify value in betting lines.
13. Parlay Betting Strategy
Some bettors only place parlay bets to maximize their win potential. However, combining multiple bets into a single wager for a higher payout means there’s higher risk involved.
Parlays are risky but can yield higher returns. You might combine multiple bets, such as three different teams, into one bet. The payout increases with each added leg, but all must win for you to cash out.
For example, bet on three basketball games in one parlay. If all three teams win, you collect a significantly higher payout than if you had bet each game individually.
Then again, if only two out of three legs hit, you lose the parlay. If each were bet individually, you might have come out ahead overall.
Read More: Parlays Vs. Straight Bets
14. Arbitrage Betting
Arbitrage betting is when you place bets on all possible outcomes of an event using different sportsbooks, guaranteeing a profit regardless of the result. It takes a lot of work, but if you can pull it off, it’s the only way to actually guarantee a payout.
This strategy involves exploiting discrepancies in odds between different sportsbooks. By placing multiple bets on all outcomes, the bettor ensures a profit due to the differences in odds.
For example, if one sportsbook offers Team A at +110 to win and another offers Team B at +120 to win, you can place bets on both teams in the correct proportions to guarantee a return.
15. Betting Based on Injuries or Player News
In this strategy, you bet when player injuries or lineup changes have a clear impact on the odds, especially if the public is slow to react.
Sportsbooks and bettors often adjust odds when key players are injured or suspended, but sometimes these changes can be over- or under-blown. Knowing when to bet before the line adjusts can be a profitable strategy.
For example, if a star player is ruled out for a game but the public hasn’t yet fully adjusted, you might bet on the opposing team before the odds shift.
16. Betting on Teams with Strong Home Court Advantage
With the home court advantage strategy, you focus on teams with a clear home-field advantage, where historical performance at home significantly outperforms their away games.
Some home teams perform better due to familiarity with their environment, fan support, and travel advantages. Analyzing home/away splits and team performance can lead to good betting opportunities.
For example, a basketball team might be slight underdogs but they’re playing at home, giving them an edge that might make the difference.
17. First Half Betting
In first half betting, a form of prop betting, you focus your wagers on the first half of a game, as this often provides different dynamics than the second half.
First-half betting is popular in sports like football and basketball, where teams can start strong but fade later. Analyzing how teams perform in the first half can lead to profitable wagers.
For example, you might bet on the underdog to cover the first-half spread if they have historically started games strong or the favorite team often starts slow.
18. Weather Betting
Weather betting is when you bet on games where weather conditions could have a significant impact on the outcome of a game. Examples of impactful weather include wind, rain, or snow. This doesn’t necessarily mean that a team plays better or worse in the rain. Instead, it usually applies to how the game is played based on the weather.
For example, you might bet on an under in an NFL game where heavy rain is expected, as it might lead to more running plays and fewer passing opportunities.
Another example is wind direction at a baseball game. If it’s blowing toward the batter, it might mean a lower scoring game. If it’s blowing behind the batter, it might mean a higher scoring game.
19. Momentum Shifts (Live Betting on Key Events)
Momentum shift betting is when you bet on shifts in momentum during a game, such as after a big turnover, touchdown, or other momentum-changing play.
Live betting allows you to place wagers based on the flow of the game, making it possible to take advantage of dramatic momentum shifts.
For example, after a turnover, a football team might have a sudden shift in momentum. You can place a live bet on the team that gains momentum to win or cover the spread.
20. Betting on Rivalries
On top of big odds swings that can be good for line shopping, contrarian betting, and arbitrage betting, betting on rivalries can have their advantages in and of themselves. When you bet on high-intensity rivalry games, emotional factors can play a big role in the outcome. Understanding those emotional stakes can give you a betting edge.
For example, bet on a rivalry game where the underdog is highly motivated, despite their weaker record, because they’re playing their fiercest competitor.
21. Hedging Bets (Risk Reduction)
Hedging bets can be a bad idea if done recklessly. But if done carefully, it can guarantee a profit or minimize losses once you’re in a favorable position.
Hedging allows you to lock in profits or cut your losses in situations where you have multiple betting outcomes. This works well when you’re betting on futures or parlays.
For example, if you placed a bet on a football team to win the Super Bowl and they make it to the finals, you could hedge by betting on the opponent, ensuring you’re in profit no matter who wins.
22. Situational Betting (Scheduling Impact)
Situational betting, or betting based on the impact of the schedule, is when you bet based on factors like back-to-back games, travel, or rest days. Teams that play consecutive games (especially without much rest) tend to perform worse, particularly when traveling. Understanding how a team’s schedule affects their performance can help you identify valuable betting opportunities.
For example, you could bet against a team playing the second game of a back-to-back on the road, especially if they’ve traveled across time zones or have a fatigued roster.
23. Value in Futures Betting
To find value in futures betting, you bet on the outcome of a season or tournament early when the odds are long and teams are undervalued.
Futures bets allow you to predict long-term outcomes like championships, MVP awards, or even win totals. Identifying undervalued teams or players early in the season can provide high value before the odds change.
For example, you might bet on a dark-horse team to win the NBA Finals, or place an MVP bet on a player before they break out during the season.
Final Thoughts
These strategies add variety and depth to your sports betting approach, enabling you to make more informed, strategic bets based on various factors in a game or season. Whether you’re a risk-taker or more conservative, there’s a strategy that can help you align your betting style with your goals.